The Bundesliga Relegation Play-Off Spot: Which Team Has The Best Chance of Clinching It?

Mainz 05

League Position: 16th Place (19 points)

Fixtures:

RB Leipzig vs Mainz (a), 30th March: Bundesliga Matchday 27

Mainz (h) vs Darmstadt, 6th April: Bundesliga Matchday 28

Mainz (h) vs Hoffenheim, 13th April: Bundesliga Matchday 29

Freiburg vs Mainz (a), 21st April: Bundesliga Matchday 30

Mainz (h) vs 1. FC Köln, 27th April: Bundesliga Matchday 31

Heidenheim vs Mainz, 4th May: Bundesliga Matchday 32

Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund, 11th May: Bundesliga Matchday 33

VfL Wolfsburg vs Mainz, 18th May: Bundesliga Matchday 34‍

Fixtures Overview: 

Mainz have a tough fixture to begin with versus Leipzig. However, as they won the reverse fixture under Jan Siewert in his only win as Mainz coach perhaps this will instil some confidence ahead of this away clash.

The next two fixtures afterward provide some hope for Mainz coach Bo Henriksen to pick up some points: the home fixture against Darmstadt provides a brilliant opportunity to get a win against the bottom side of the Bundesliga and the Hoffenheim clash (although tough) will provide an opportunity to catch out an inconsistent side.

Futmo's Verdict:

Mainz have some tough fixtures against Borussia Dortmund and Freiburg. However, they will avoid playing any of the current top three for the rest of the season (Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart).

This should mean that they can at least play out some draws even against the top opponents. Overall, the columnist believes the matter in which their fixture list falls means they have the hardest set of games out of the bottom three sides, but of course are in the best potition.

1. FC Köln

League Position: 17th Place (18 points)

Fixtures:

Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln (a), 30th March: Bundesliga Matchday 27

1. FC Köln (h) vs VfL Bochum, 6th April: Bundesliga Matchday 28

Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Köln (a), 13th April: Bundesliga Matchday 29

1. FC Köln (h) vs Darmstadt, 20th April: Bundesliga Matchday 30

Mainz (h) vs 1. FC Köln, 27th April: Bundesliga Matchday 31

1. FC Köln (h) vs Freiburg, 4th May: Bundesliga Matchday 32

1. FC Köln (h) vs Union Berlin, 11th May: Bundesliga Matchday 33

Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln (a), 18th May: Bundesliga Matchday 34

Fixtures Overview: 

Köln have an incredibly tough game against Augsburg to start off following the international break. However, with the break perhaps halting Augsburg's progress in the season and their incredible form recently and keeping in mind that Köln will have gone through their in Algorfa, Spain, this may be a chance for the Billy Goats to collect a point.

Next, a home tie to Bochum would make you believe that Köln should win this with the home crowd behind them if they wish to have a chance of survival. After this, Bayern Munich will no doubt prove to be a game too hard to get any points out of. In spite of this, Köln should aim to keep the game close and make sure the scoreline remains respectful (as opposed to Mainz's recent recent trip to the Allianz Arena).

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The two ties after this are against fellow bottom three sides Mainz and Darmstadt. Köln will have to win these two back to back to survive in the Bundesliga, however these fixtures following each other may help Köln to gain a late season spurt of form to stay up.

Finally, two home fixtures against Freiburg and Union Berlin should provide some hope but only if they manage to beat their two relegation rivals (Mainz and Darmstadt) beforehand. A win out of these two games should be accomplishable. To finish the campaign, an away match against Heidenheim isn't the kindest fixture however it seems likely Frank Schmidt's side will likely not be playing for anything at this stage so perhaps this can leave an opportunity for Timo Schultz's side to get a win.

Futmo's Verdict:

Köln's season from now on relies on two things: wins against Mainz and Darmstadt and their home form. Away from the RheinEnergieStadion under Timo Schultz, Köln have been solid and are yet to lose but they need to improve their home results to have a chance of surviving.

The Bayern match at the Allianz Arena is no doubt the most difficult fixture and Köln are the only team out of the bottom three to face them. In spite of this, favourable fixtures elsewhere mean they are set up the second-best to succeed as a result of the remaining fixtures.

Darmstadt

League Position: 18th Place (13 points)

Fixtures:

VfL Bochum vs Darmstadt (a), 31st March: Bundesliga Matchday 27

Mainz vs Darmstadt (a), 6th April: Bundesliga Matchday 28

Darmstadt (h) vs Freiburg, 14th April: Bundesliga Matchday 29

1. FC Köln vs Darmstadt (a), 20th April: Bundesliga Matchday 30

Darmstadt (h) vs Heidenheim, 27th April: Bundesliga Matchday 31

VfL Wolfsburg vs Darmstadt (a), 4th May: Bundesliga Matchday 32

Darmstadt (h) vs Hoffenheim, 11th May: Bundesliga Matchday 33

Borussia Dortmund vs Darmstadt (a), 18th May: Bundesliga Matchday 34

Fixtures Overview: 

Darmstadt have two winnable fixtures immediately following the international break with Bochum and Mainz.

They will especially fancy themselves against Bochum as they have lost all of their last four games including 2-0 against Mainz last matchday. As for the Mainz clash, it is of course a must-win game that could see Darmstadt as good as relegated with a heavy loss.

Next, a home tie against Freiburg will prove tough but might bring about a point and the away clash against Köln could see them slump again to defeat if Torsten Lieberknecht does not play his cards right.

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This Köln match is a difficult task as the columnist believes this is the last glaring obvious place where Darmstadt might pick up three points. Following this, Darmstadt host Heidenheim which will of course pip the two promoted sides against one another once again. However, when looking at the two sides it seems as if Heidenheim just have too much quality.

The next two games in Wolfsburg and Hoffenheim will be extremely difficult to get anything out of as Hoffenheim should still be in the hunt of Conference League football by then and Wolfsburg may well be rejuvenated by then through the appointment of Ralph Hasenhüttl as their new head coach.

Lastly, Darmstadt face Borussia Dortmund on the final day in what the columnist believes might be already have been confirmed as a farewell game by that point. With five and six points between Darmstadt and both Köln and Mainz respectively they have a ton of work to do to close this.

Futmo's Verdict:

Darmstadt must rely on grinding out some results. Far too often this season have they made mistakes in defence and have conceded too many. If they can get the win against Mainz, perhaps they still have a chance of grabbing the relegation play-off spot.

Whereas Mainz and Köln can afford to drop points elsewhere, Darmstadt have to win both ties against the other two and also grab points elswhere to be in with a chance of surviving. However, the fixture list is in their favour as they have (in the author's view) the most favourable set of matches.